Adult social care is £14.2m over budget at the half-year. Ealing Council covers it with £18.2m of treasury gains and contingencies; parking is £5.6m up.

Ealing Council’s adult social care budget is forecast to end the year £14.2 million overspent, up from £12.5 million three months ago. Its services as a whole are £19 million over budget.

The council’s half-year budget report, published for Cabinet on 4 November, shows how it plugs that gap. Cheaper borrowing costs, its own contingency funds and higher parking income bring the forecast overspend for the year down to £739,000. That is 0.17% of the budget.

Only 37% of this year’s planned savings had been made by 30 September.

Updated 5 November: Cabinet noted the forecast on 4 November and approved the £170,000 North Acton station study and the £11.354 million of capital budgets moved to later years, according to the draft minutes. Both decisions can still be called in by councillors.

Where the money is going

The report gives each department’s forecast against its budget for 2026/27, as at 30 September:

Department Forecast over (under) budget Three months ago
Adults and public health £14.171m over £12.459m over
Children’s and schools £1.665m over £2.966m over
Economy and sustainability £1.620m over £1.166m over
Housing and environment £3.611m under £2.292m under
Resources £0.135m under £0.023m over
Strategy and change £0.260m under £0.028m over
Unallocated efficiency savings £5.527m over £5.527m over
All services £18.977m over £19.879m over
Corporate budgets £18.238m under £12.082m under
Whole general fund £0.739m over £7.797m over

The last row is the one that improved. The services themselves are barely better than in the summer.

Adult social care: the main pressure

The biggest single figure is £14.444 million for long-term placements for adults with learning disabilities, mental health needs and older people. The report says this is “mainly due to new demand”.

There are smaller pressures too:

  • £1.666m on community equipment and client billing
  • £402,000 on client and day transport
  • a £2.342m underspend, mostly from vacancies the department has not filled

The report lists high-cost clients, rising transition costs as young people move into adult services, and bad debt as the main risks to this forecast.

How the gap is closed

The council is not cutting the overspend. It is offsetting it. Corporate budgets are forecast £18.238 million under, made up mainly of:

  • £6.66m less spent on treasury management, because the minimum it must set aside to repay debt came in lower once last year’s accounts closed, and higher interest rates brought in more income
  • £5m from the council’s annual revenue contingency
  • £5.85m from risk contingencies set aside for new demand and savings pressures

The report is plain about the risk in that. “Given the level of contingencies that are assumed within the forecast position, it is crucial that every possible action is taken to reduce non-essential expenditure,” it says. A resource management board now reviews recruitment and payroll decisions.

At the same point last year, the council was forecasting a £1.472 million underspend.

Parking income is £5.6m over budget

Housing and environment is the one big department under budget, and parking is why. Parking and regulatory services income is forecast £5.593 million above budget. The report says that figure assumes £1.3 million goes into the council’s parking reserve.

Inside the same department, housing demand is £2.495 million over. That is driven by £3.572m of housing benefit subsidy losses and a £3.609m net pressure on temporary accommodation, partly offset by £4.737m of savings measures in the service. Our page on where Ealing places homeless families explains the policy behind those costs.

Savings: 37% made, 22% at risk

Full Council approved £11.937 million of savings for 2026/27. By 30 September:

  • £4.457m (37%) had been achieved
  • £4.809m was in progress or possibly at risk
  • £2.671m (22%) was at risk of not being achieved this year
Bar chart of Ealing Council's £11.937m of 2026/27 savings at 30 September 2026: £4.457m achieved, £4.809m in progress or possibly at risk, £2.671m at risk of not being achieved
Ealing Council's 2026/27 savings at the half-year, from Table 2 of the Q2 budget monitoring report. Chart by The Ealing Post.
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Children’s services carries the largest target, £6 million, of which £1.471m is rated at risk. The report’s table shows £1m at risk in strategy and change, against a target of £680,000 for that department.

Schools: the SEND deficit

The ring-fenced schools budget is forecast to run an £18.078 million deficit this year, from payments for pupils with education, health and care plans.

On 5 October the government accepted Ealing’s SEND reform plan. It agreed a £16.309 million grant to clear 90% of the deficit built up to 31 March 2026, which was £18.121 million. Even with that grant, the report forecasts a deficit of about £19.9 million on the account by 31 March 2027, because this year’s shortfall is nearly as large as the one just written off.

That deficit cannot be paid from council tax, under the government’s rules for school funding.

Council housing, buildings and a station study

The Housing Revenue Account, which runs council homes, is forecast £2.999 million over. The council will draw that from its housing reserves, which fall from £17.3 million to £14.3 million. The overspend includes:

  • £1.325m in extra borrowing costs, because less is expected from capital receipts this year
  • £921,000 on repairs, salaries and building safety
  • £670,000 for “the Sheringham Tower incident response”
  • £408,000 for new management contracts at Leamington Park and Dame Gertrude

Two building projects are forecast to overspend. The Perceval House refurbishment is £853,000 over, of which £387,000 is audiovisual equipment. Gurnell Leisure Centre is £703,000 over on enabling works and early contractor costs, before the scheme’s full budget has been approved.

Cabinet was also asked to approve, and on 4 November approved, £170,000 for a feasibility study into a bigger rebuild of North Acton station. The report says the station needs more ticket gates and wider stairs for forecast passenger growth. The study is paid for from interest on developer (section 106) contributions, not council tax.

Council tax and business rates collection

By 30 September the council had collected 53.76% of this year’s council tax, against a target of 54.2%. The gap is £1.216 million, and collection is 0.27 points behind last year.

Business rates collection is 52.54%, 2.06 points behind target. The report blames delays to billing caused by changes in government legislation, and expects to recover it later in the year.

What it means for you

  • No services are cut in this report. It is a forecast, and Cabinet noted it on 4 November.
  • Council tax for this year does not change. Next year’s bill is set in February. The report warns that relying on contingencies and treasury income “into the short and medium term” weakens the council’s financial resilience. Check Ealing council tax bands for this year’s figures.
  • Cabinet met on Wednesday 4 November. The papers are on the council’s committee site.

Sources